Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Cash The Crash 2011

A lot of people have been e-mailing and thanking me for the ideas shared on gold as well as a few basic companies shared in the recent past. I thank you from the bottom of my heart for the kind words, but at the end of the day it isn't rocket science. It is just simple common sense that over time everyone can apply. Each one of you can listen to your inner voice, and you too will be able to understand what is happening. I'm a simple person and I believe that our intuition and natural instinct is the most powerful. I invest, live and do business based on it and by the grace of God, it has always made me happy. Listen to yourself and you will only have yourself to thank or sometimes when you go wrong, compliment yourself that you gave yourself a new learning experience.

I don't use any complicated charts, software or analysis. Whatever is happening today in the market, comes as no surprise to anyone of us Happionaires. In fact, had it not come, it would be a surprise. Gold is going up, because of a very simple logic - it can't be printed. (In case in the future some Alchemist comes up with a way to convert all the stone on the planet into gold, the prices of gold will crash and it will be worthless.)

But where will this correction stop? I don't know - and it really doesn't matter, as long as you are invested in good companies. In fact the companies a lot of us now hold, have increased in price, ever since the market started crashing.

So now once again like 2008 - 2009 we have lots of voices coming out and sharing their views. We have one voice which is talking about how everything is alright and there is nothing to worry and another voice talking about how it is the end of the world and for India. I am someone who is an eternal opportunist. While, yes there are a lot of companies that are going to face challenges - as interest rates go up, companies with heavy debt will be in trouble. Infrastructure growth and funding might slow down, but in the midst of all this there will always be companies that will reward you for the longer term. We all saw how our investments made in 2008-2009 rewarded us.

But this time things are a bit different. In 2008-2009, to be honest the problems weren't really solved, they were just pushed ahead a bit. I think now the world will have to face the problems - and the good thing is when we face problems we can solve them. There might be some challenges, but it is all for good.

The present period, I sense will be even more rewarding than 2008-2009. I have been buying more of this company, as the present crisis will benefit it further - but besides this many companies will soon come at cheaper valuations.

However, at this moment I feel what the RBI is doing is not correct. They have not been able to control inflation, which is threatening more and more people of our country. Instead of raising interest rates further, (I sense interest rates will go up all the way to 12%) they can adopt a more creative approach. They can help industry, agriculture, infrastructure produce more - this brings in more supply. They can help increase the power of the Rupee, so our major imports become cheaper. They can try and reduce taxation - and in turn command our politicians and Government to become a bit more responsible with the way they spend money.

Silver at the moment would also be good - but more from a traders perspective, but Gold even though a lot of large investment banks has started talking it down (But weren't the same guys talking it down even when it was at Rs. 14,000 levels?) it still makes sense. Gold is a big threat to paper - that might not be of much value.

Quantum Dynamics has organized programs on 2nd September at the Mumbai Gymkhana, and at the Pune Gymkahana on 3rd September for all Happionaires. I'm glad they are so passionate about spreading the message of Happionaire investing, I hope each one of you shares details about our program with all your friends, family and loved ones. In case any of you isn't happy with the program, I would love to personally refund whatever you have paid Quantum Dynamics. To register contact Neha 09971346274 or Email- info@qudyn.com . I'm going to see all of you there!

Keep your eyes and ears open. Things are going to get exciting once again.

Yogesh Chabria


Ravi P said...

Hi Yogesh

I am in US for 2 weeks visit when S&P announced degrade of ratings. I can tell and also sense that crash is definitely going to be much deeper.

I am absolutely confident that I'll get prices equivalent or may be cheaper to 2008 valuations and when you get it,you would know that its your time now.

I would say enjoy the ride, and cash the crash when its real crash and not the bottom fishing. At present, the hole is deep but its going to get deeper further. Wait till then!

Needless to say, great post and guys read through lines - you'll see what he means.

Until then

Anonymous said...

Very rightly said. I am a silent follower of your blog and I think the way you write resembles someone whom i admire and have been following since 2007/2008...(IFCI Discussion Board moneycontrol.com). Now this gentleman is no longer writing in that board due to abusive languages used by some mischievous boarders.

In this article you wrote about Interest rate going till 12%,gold,silver, and the company infected with pest...this person whom i am following is saying the same thing and since long too.when nobody at least in india said about investing in silver and gold...he is still bullish on gold but presently much bullish in silver.

Sir you are doing a great job by educating the investors carry on with your good work.

rohit said...

This proves that buy and hold investing is dead, everyone must become a trader. Because India is full of crooks, you cannot rely on any company any management, there are companies like cals refineries which will never come to reality but give 50% returns twice every year, if traded properly and there are good companies which are trading at 2 and 3 pe and stock price not moving up. this is all rubbish. I think Indian's are what should I say lucky or smart that they do not fall into this trap, this den, hence, not even 2 % of the population invests in the markets, and so they have real assets like property and gold. Gold prices going up is a blessing in disguise, because we are one of the largest consumers and holders of gold. Who wants 25-30% returns, and compounded 12-15% return is great. I would never advice anyone to take this as a career, even after all this if anyone wishes to try their luck, put only that much money, which you can afford to lose.

Sunil said...

Wishing all the fellow Indians " A Happy Independence Day ". May God save our country.

Kuldhir said...

Many stocks have fallen by 30-40% since 1 august but still so many are there which have not faller, rathar they have increased in so called bear market!!! :)))

Anonymous said...

I really liked the article, and the very cool blog

Anonymous said...

Do you think the trade in Silver is over as the dollar has started rising?