Thursday, November 4, 2010

Happy Diwali!

Diwali has always been a time, to welcome Goddess Laxmi along with love, smiles and happiness. I hope all our friends here use this auspicious occasion to welcome her in their lives.

There is an old school of thought which says that when too many people start telling you they want to invest money in something, it is probably a good time to sell that thing and not pay too much attention to it. We have learnt this over time, during the last crash if we recall people were rushing to buy stocks and there was a mad rush of IPOs hitting the market.

Promoters will come out and sell their stake in an IPO only when they feel that valuations are richest. Of course markets are irrational, and that is what makes them so exciting. During the earlier crash Sensex valuations might have been great at 10,000 – but the markets went on to correct further. Similarly valuation might be rich today at 20,000, but there is no sense predicting what happens next.

In the past few months, I have been busy spending time with people who are in the midst of the global financial system. And once again I will stick my head out and say, the world is not yet out of the financial crisis and this time the effects of the crisis will be felt on a much larger scale. But out of all this a lot of good will come out, valuations across the world will become more appealing. Hopefully more people and countries will realize the ill effects of excessive debt and the risks of having a highly leveraged financial system that promotes products like futures, derivatives and currency trading.

Through out times Goddess Laxmi has never stayed with gamblers and people who don’t respect her.

A shift to gold is another sign of things to come. Gold is one thing, I will continue betting on and only time will tell how good or bad the bet was. Studying the financial history of the human race running back even 3000 years, we will realize how good investment gold has been. Once again our ancient Indian culture has propagated the purchase of Gold through festivals such as Dhanteras and Diwali. With the rupee being strong now, gold is still a good option for the long term.

I feel there is no better time than now, to welcome Goddess Laxmi into your homes. In the stock market, as I’m sure all of you must be aware that Laxmi comes home with you once you book profits.

Keep smiling and make sure you don’t pollute the environment and burn money with dangerous firecrackers. Lighting a small diya is so much more beautiful than bursting bombs that harm the aged and pets. Spread the love, happiness and smiles.

Wishing all of you a very Happy Diwali and Prosperous New Year!

Yogesh Chabria


Anonymous said...

Happy Diwali Yogesh

Ravi P said...

Hi Yogesh,

Wonderful Post. Welcome back.

I wish you and your family a very Happy and prosperous Diwali. May Goddess Lakshmi showers her blessings on you & your family.

I am glad after looking at your post that selling in small chunks and avoiding IPO's at these valuations is a good way to go home :)

Rajesh Toshniwal said...

This post has come after such a long... long time.

Your pearls of wisdom are " priceless".

Keep posting for investors' benefit and well being.

Shubh Deepawali to you also.


Rajesh Toshniwal

Ravindra Dalvi said...

Dear sir,

Thank you
Wish you Happy Diwali and Prosperous New Year

Again thank you for your thought that you share with us

Vishal Vadehra said...


longterm said...

gold over aperiod of 28years has gone up only from rs 120per gm to 2000 per gm cagr may be roughly 8percent or so where as shares in the same period say index has gone up from 220 to 22000 till date

how u say gold is a good investment

The Investor said...


As usuak , you once again presented a factual analysis of current market situation. It is for the reasons u narrated above , it is said that while investing,scepticism is your best friend.

Best wishes for wonderful diwali.

Shabu's said...


Wish you, family as well all the followers a happy and prosperous Diwali. Its one of the rich post but compact with high value contents ..

bhupinder singh said...

respected friend i always wait for u r good blog----i am happy to read good advice on investment---principalbhupinder--RETD

Anonymous said...

Yogesh Bhai is correct, many many companies are over priced, for example UBL, Jublfood. I really don't understand what companies have done in last 5 months for its stock price to raise 150% in last 5-6 months. I booked my profits and waiting for better value companies.

Pt said...

Quite frankly speaking, I am one of those ill-fated investors who lost around 5 lakhs in 2008 and missed this bull-shit rally (that was purely based of all those experts pessimistic opinions). I never will invest now as I know my fate. I wish a very huge crash to come to enable me to invest again to recover part of my money in long-term.

Deepak said...

Dear Yogesh,

Nice to see your post after a long time.

Wish You and Your Family a Very Happy Diwali.


DPM said...

Yogesh, I will request you to comment on Silver as well. Silver has out performed gold in terms of returns.
Should I buy Silver now???

Ajay Dubey said...

Hi Yogesh,

I am great fan of yours and love to follow your wisdom. I recall you had sometime back predicted a great crash.

What is your view on this now?

Thanks / Ajay

Abhijit said...

Hello Yogesh,

Happy Diwali.

I have been avidly waiting for your post for some time. This was a refreshing read again like your older posts.

Your two books, viz. CTC and ITHW, started me to equity investing. I owe a lot to you. I wish you all the best in this holy occasion.


CCGemini said...

CCGemini said...

Why do you have this habit of lazing for days together?There is so much to talk about>>>Please wake up..
posted on Tuesday, October 26, 2010
And you finally wake up on Friday, November 05, 2010.....
learn to be prompt or have a minimum of a fortnightly talk.I have lost all contact with this site for long...How cud you neglect when a lot is happening around..?.I hope you take my suggestion seriously...Thnxs